The African Zone cuts across ten countries. 2004) since it often acts as the source region for cloud bands. We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling responsible for CMIP5 model data, which was provided by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI; https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/). These figures indicate that the models are projecting a slight flattening of the annual cycle with the winter becoming wetter and the summer drier. Geophys Res Lett 30(5):8009. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014840, Saji N, Goswami B, Vinayachandran P, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Daily rainfall data were converted to seasonal totals with Fig. 3, winter is typically very dry over the region so the spring months are the first opportunity for surface and groundwater resources to start replenishing, particularly if the previous summer has been drier than average. This contour level is chosen as it is easily identified as closed contour level around the anticyclones, which is not intersected with the neighbouring land masses in either the early or late summer periods. 2018; Mahlalela et al. 2a are the catchment areas of the main dams supplying the province’s largest municipality (Nelson Mandela Bay) which contains the major coastal city of Port Elizabeth (located near 34° S) (termed the “west” basin) as well as those for rivers draining the wetter northeastern part of the province (termed the “east” basin). Rainfall is the most important weather parameter in the East Africa region. Only one ensemble member (r1i1p1) per model is included in the analysis. The green polygon in both panels illustrates the location of the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa. The autumn accounts for about 20–25% over most of the province with a small region in the far west reaching 30% whereas for winter, only in the far south, does rainfall in this season reach 15% of the annual total on average. These two territories are Mayotte and Réunion. Although most of the 36 models analysed project a spring drying over the Eastern Cape, the multi-model mean indicates only very slight drying in this season. On interannual time scales, the results indicate that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly southeast of South Africa as part of a shift in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern in the midlatitudes. 2000; Behera and Yamagata 2001; Reason 2001), the third in the late summer and typically more over Namibia and Angola than South Africa (Rouault et al. © 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Int J Climatol 29(7):1001–1012, Harrison MSJ (1984) A generalized classification of South African summer rain-bearing synoptic systems. 2020), a key rainfall-producing system over the region, adds to the uncertainty in future rainfall changes. 2015). In February 2018, the Western Cape Province was declared a disaster area after a severe drought which occurred between 2015 and 2018 (Pienaar and Boonzaaier 2018; Sousa et al. Southern Africa is rich in mineral resources, with the largest deposits of platinum and related elements such as vanadium, cobalt, and chromium in the world. 11b, c) are also mainly negatively correlated with Eastern Cape SON rainfall but this is only statistically significant for small areas in the far northeast near Lesotho. 2018b) and because it is a region of sharp vegetation, soil moisture and topographic gradients (Fig. Other important rainfall producing systems for the region are mesoscale convective complexes (Blamey and Reason 2009, 2013), cut-off lows (CoLs) (Singleton and Reason 2006, 2007a) and ridging anticyclones (Weldon and Reason 2014; Engelbrecht et al. Daily rainfall data over the Eastern Cape were provided by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for January 1981–December 2018 for comparison against daily gridded data (CHIRPS). The cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly southeast of South Africa is also evident at lower levels leading to an enhancement (reduction) in offshore dry flow (Fig. Geophys Res Lett 43(3):1280–1286, Reason CJC, Mulenga H (1999) Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the southwest Indian Ocean. Since the Eastern Cape is only part of the large area in southern Africa affected by cloud bands, small errors in the model simulations of cloud bands can therefore lead to substantial discrepancies in the resulting model simulation of seasonal rainfall. The geography of East Africa is scenic, with the East African Rift cutting across the region. 9a, b) support this suggestion of changes in the strength of weather systems over the Eastern Cape with strong relative subsidence (uplift) over most of the Eastern Cape as well as much of South Africa and the ocean to the south of the country in the dry (wet) composite. To examine potential mechanisms associated with these anomalous seasons, the next section considers composites of various circulation fields. There are 18 countries in the region, all occupying a total area of 5,112,903 km2. Even with this stricter criterion of the extended summer “half” of the year (September–April) being anomalously dry or wet, it is evident that all of the latter occurred in the first two decades of the period. Clim Dyn 15(12):937–951, Walker N (1990) Links between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela Current systems. J Climatol 8(1):17–30, Mahlalela P, Blamey RC, Reason CJC (2019) Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa. The multi-model mean (MMM) in given in the last panel. 7 suggest that changes in the South Atlantic or South Indian Ocean semi-permanent anticyclones might be important. 8a) in the dry (wet) springs. 1991; Todd and Washington 1999; Hart et al. From Fig. Environ Res Lett 13:124025, Taljaard JJ (1985) Cut-off lows in the South African region. Examination of GPCC data (not shown) indicates that most of South Africa including the entire Eastern Cape received below average rainfall in SON 2019. Figure 13a plots the annual cycle of rainfall over the Eastern Cape for 36 CMIP5 models and for two observed gridded rainfall products that have similar resolution to the models (GPCP and CMAP). The diverse climates of Africa range from scorching deserts to icy glaciers, from steamy rainforests to grassy plains. Tellus A 58(3):355–367, Singleton A, Reason CJC (2007a) A numerical model study of an intense cut-off low pressure system over South Africa. The world’s fifth longest river, the Zaire River, passes through the region. Elsewhere, part of the dam catchment areas for the largest city of Port Elizabeth also show significantly decreasing trends. (2020) found that there are large variations in the modelled average locations and frequencies of these weather systems between the models even though all models correctly simulate the large scale generation and evolution of the cloud bands. This test was used as it makes no assumption about the data distribution and is insensitive to outliers. There is no alternative. Tropical rainforests are a dominant physical characteristic of the region. Sandstorms are also a common phenomenon in the area. 7 indicated shifts in wavenumber 3 pattern, it can be seen that only the circulation anomaly in the midlatitude South Indian Ocean is consistent between the dry and wet spring composites since the anomalies in the midlatitude South Pacific and South Atlantic are not exactly in the same place. 2003) and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) (Xie and Arkin 1997). The dry seasons are more evenly spread out although 2 of the 5 occurred in the last decade. As a result, October is an important period … The Eastern Cape province of South Africa lies in the transition zone between the winter rainfall (western South Africa) and the summer rainfall (rest of subtropical southern Africa) regions which makes it an interesting but complex region to study. For the SIHP, its eastern extent (Fig. In these areas, local differences in model orography may dominate over large‐scale circulation in influencing rainfall … Based on CHIRPS data, it is found that this season shows a significant decreasing trend in both rainfall totals as well as the number of rainfall days (but not heavy rainfall days) for spring over most of the province since 1981. Belay Begashaw is the director general of the Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa in Kigali, Rwanda. South Africa is the most powerful country in the region, both politically and economically. The region is comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. Maps of the number of rain days (> 1 mm per day), heavy rain days (> 10 mm per day) and their trend across the province are plotted in Fig. Kenya which is Africa’s second tallest peak are both in East Africa. The cultures of the people of West Africa are varied, but they all exhibit similarities in their traditional dress, music, and cuisine. 6c). a The climatological number of rain days in SON (daily rain ≥ 1 mm) over the Eastern Cape Province and b the trend in the SON rain days (given as days per decade) in CHIRPS data and SAWS stations (circles) over the period 1981–2018. These countries, from East to west are Eritrea, Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Gambia, and Senegal. Sahel, semiarid region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal eastward to Sudan. This is so because the economies of the countries in the region are mainly dependent on rain fed agriculture (Funk et al., 2008; Ngetich et al., 2014; Fox and Rockström, 2005; Ongoma, 2013). Timber logging activities are a big threat to the natural rainforest ecology of the region. Weather Forecast 17(4):655–669, Rouault M, Florenchie P, Fauchereau N, Reason CJ (2003) South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall. A stronger Angola Low and this moisture inflow have been found to be important for both synoptic and seasonal scale wet spells in summer over South Africa and the reverse during dry conditions (Mulenga et al. This east/northeastern region is in fact part of a larger region of eastern South Africa (with strongest trends in this part of the Eastern Cape, Lesotho and eastern Free State) (not shown) which shows significant decreasing trends in spring rainfall totals and rain days. However, given the complex topography and meteorology, highly varying soil and vegetation conditions in this province (e.g. (b) Shows the climatological seasonal cycle over the region marked in red in (a), and the 2019 seasonal cycle from CHIRPS and TAMSATv3. C. J. C. Reason. Stippling or larger circles denotes values significant at a 95% level using a two-tailed Mann–Kendall test. Theor Appl Climatol 115(1–2):177–185, Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Currently, the province is suffering an intense drought (which started in 2015) with several urban areas under stringent water restrictions and having been close to have run out of piped water from the corresponding dams. Geophys Res Lett 28(2):327–330, Blamey R, Reason CJC (2009) Numerical simulation of a mesoscale convective system over the east coast of South Africa. As a result, the meteorology here is complex and often involves interactions with the regional topography or the neighbouring warm Agulhas Current (e.g., Rouault et al. Countries in this region comprise of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Swaziland, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Botswana, and Angola. contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Clim Res 26(1):17–31, Diab R, Preston-Whyte R, Washington R (1991) Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. The total area covered by the region is 1,178,850 square miles and its distance from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea is 3,360 miles. The region is known for its complex topography and variable climate (arid in the eastern to humid in the western parts of the region) influenced by monsoon systems, Rift Valley lakes, and several convergence zones 18. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(11):2539–2558. Further north over Namibia, Botswana and Angola there are positive (negative) anomalies implying a stronger (weaker) mid-level Botswana High which has been previously associated with drier (wetter) conditions over subtropical southern Africa in late summer (Reason 2016; Driver and Reason 2017). Int J Climatol 20(11):1285–1327, Reason CJC, Rouault M, Melice J-L, Jagadheesha D (2002) Interannual winter rainfall variability in SW South Africa and large scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Fore-knowledge of rainfall distribution at decadal time scale in specific zones is critical for planning purposes. These countries are Togo, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Nigeria, Niger, Mauritania, Mali, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Ghana, Gambia, Burkina Faso, and Benin and three island nations namely Cape Verde, Sāo Tomé and Principe, and Saint Helena, which is an overseas territory of the British. It also has vast resources of uranium, titanium, gold, diamonds, and iron. 12a) with spring rainfall over much of the Eastern Cape as well as part of the northeast of South Africa. These six states make up the East African Community. Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer ... which bring rainfall to each region. The river basins have been merged into a “west” and “east” basin to highlight some of the regional rainfall differences. Panel b shows the smoothed monthly dam levels (given in % stored) from around 1981 until 2018, while panel c shows the austral summer rainfall standardized anomalies, based on CHIRPS, for the regions defined as west and east basin in panel a. Precipitation over the Eastern Cape region is influenced by weather systems from both the tropics and midlatitudes, ranging from small-scale convective storms to synoptic-scale tropical-extratropical cloud bands (known locally as tropical-temperate troughs—TTTs). However, given the strong land and ocean surface gradients in the region and its sensitivity to both tropical and midlatitude circulation, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. for the Sahel for instance rainfall only comes from one source of humidity, the monsoon -for the low layer drivers-, and mid atmosphere advection of humidity from equatorial convection. To assess potential mechanisms associated with the interannual rainfall anomalies, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and omega, 850 hPa moisture flux and divergence, and OLR are analysed for the spring seasons in Table 1. Figure 1 shows the rainfall gradients and totals across the Eastern Cape during the spring and summer in relation to those that exist across the rest of southern Africa (summer rainfall dominated everywhere except for western South Africa and the south coast of South Africa). However, because rainfall in this area is often localized—sometimes almost at the level of one farm—it's difficult to forecast accurately with satellite data, which show larger weather patterns. a The mean austral spring and summer (September–February) rainfall (shaded; mm) across southern Africa based on CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2018.b A zoomed in version of the mean spring and summer rainfall for the southeast region of the domain. He told Farmer’s Weekly that there was a risk of some frost in lower lying areas of the Free State, the Eastern Cape, southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, and the irrigation areas of the Northern Cape from about 6 to 8 April. 1b) and the corresponding CHIRPS (black-solid line) anomalies. Each region has its unique climatic and bio-geographic characteristics. Sci Data 2:150066, Gillett NP, Kell TD, Jones PD (2006) Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode. The western coast of the Eastern Cape merges into the small all-season rainfall region that extends along the south coast of South Africa between about 22–25° E (Weldon and Reason 2014; Engelbrecht et al. The African Great Lakes region comprises of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. 2015). This method uses the median of all possible slopes for the given series making it statistically robust. In Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon however, farming of export crops like palm oil, coffee, and cocoa takes place in large plantations. The main features of the rainfall climatology in West Africa. SON geopotential height composite anomaly (shaded with contours; m) at the 500 hPa level for a dry and b wet springs, a The mean moisture flux divergence (shaded; g kg−1 s−1 × 10–5) and moisture flux (scale vector shown) during SON at the 850 hPa level. It was argued by Jury et al. J Hydrometeorol 19:127–142, Botai CM, Botai JO, Adeola AM (2018) Spatial distribution of temporal precipitation contrasts in South Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, 95 percent of agriculture depends on rainfall, which makes accurate weather forecasts absolutely crucial. The ongoing drought has already cost the province over R120 million for drought relief measures. 2010; Manhique et al. These anomalously wet (dry) SON seasons were chosen such that they occur in the same year as the overall (SONDJFMA) summer being wet (dry). There is less of a contrast in the distribution of heavy rainfall days across the province with only the north coast showing a much greater frequency than the south (Fig. Much of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been experiencing a severe drought since 2015. Part 6, Rainfall in South Africa. Geophys Res Lett 31:L23212. These six states make up the East African Community. Trends in various seasonal rainfall characteristics such as the number of rainy days (daily rain > 1 mm) and heavy rainfall days (daily rain > 10 mm) were evaluated using a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test over the analysis period 1981–2018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020365, Reason CJC (1999) Interannual warm and cool events in the subtropical/mid-latitude South Indian Ocean region. Most of South Africa's seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer summer months, from October to March. 1b). In two years with anomalously high AMJ rainfall in region 5, 2002 and 2006, rainfall exceeds 10 mm on 20 days (on 6 of which it exceeds 20 mm). For ease of comparison, precipitation (atmosphere variables) in the models are re-gridded using bilinear interpolation to a common 1.5° × 1.5° (2.5° × 2.5°) grid. 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( grey-dashed line ) anomalies, Botai CM, Botai JO, Adeola Am ( )! Denotes values significant at the top of each panel be regarded as arid confidence in Eastern... Wet ) springs and Queenstown ) have also been experiencing a severe drought since.! As a result, October is an important period for the spring season of interest next considers. Cape as well 2009 ) while SAM impacts have been downloaded from the NCEP-DOE II reanalysis data Kanamitsu! 29 days significant decline in spring rainfall, particularly in the Horn of Africa range from scorching to. And Islam is insensitive to outliers the NRF for partially funding her PhD research climate change could one! Center for Africa in Kigali, Rwanda, and it occupies the Eastern (..., Fauchereau N ( 2012 ) Building a tropical–extratropical cloud band metbot, https: //doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, over million! Flux shown in Fig makes accurate weather forecasts absolutely crucial topography and meteorology, highly varying and! 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